How should a referral study measure stage duration while opportunities remain open?
Treat every open opportunity as censored at the cutoff and estimate time-to-stage with the Kaplan-Meier method. A median computed only from closed cases describes the fast deals, not the program.
Define stages by events with timestamps
A stage is the interval between two recorded events. For a company-data referral, the natural events come from the company's journey and the reward statuses SourceX publishes:
| Stage | Starts when | Ends when | Who controls the pace |
|---|---|---|---|
| Credit | Introduction submitted | Company submits a verified application | The company and its authorized contact |
| Review | Verified application | Review decision recorded | SourceX |
| Agreement | Positive review decision | Agreement signed | The company and SourceX |
| Preparation and handoff | Agreement signed | Data handoff completed | SourceX and the company, with approved processing routes |
| A reward becomes payable after SourceX has paid the referred company under its signed agreement and the payout conditions in the program terms are met, including finance approval and your tax and payment details. | Handoff completed | A reward becomes payable after SourceX has paid the referred company under its signed agreement and the payout conditions in the program terms are met, including finance approval and your tax and payment details. | Buyer, SourceX |
| Reward payment | Reward Eligible | Reward Paid | SourceX finance and the partner's tax and payment details |
The last stage is the only one with a contractual clock. The program terms set a deadline of 60 days after the later of the Acquisition Partner’s final written acceptance and completed handoff, once the payment conditions are met. Every other interval is variable, which is why it needs measuring. The rewards page defines each status (Estimated, Eligible, Approved, Processing, Paid), and what happens after a company applies describes the company's side in order. The referral funnel overview names the same stages in plain words; this page adds the clock.
Fix the cohort and the cutoff
Admit cases by one event (verified applications dated within a quarter, say), read every status on one cutoff date, and never add later cases to an existing cohort. The NIST statistics handbook describes this as a fixed-time design: cases that have not reached the event by the cutoff are right censored, because their true times lie beyond what the study observed. The same cohort rules underpin the conversion benchmark design, so both studies can be published from one dataset.
A worked example: 60 days or 120 days?
Illustrative only. Ten fictional opportunities, measured from verified application to signed agreement. Five signed (at days 30, 45, 60, 75 and 120). Five were still open at the cutoff, having waited 40, 90, 150, 180 and 200 days so far. This is not SourceX data.
The naive approach takes the five signed cases and reports their median: 60 days. It ignores the five open cases, three of which have already waited longer than any signed case.
The Kaplan-Meier approach keeps them. At each signing, the share still waiting drops by the fraction of cases then at risk; a censored case simply leaves the at-risk group without counting as a signing.
| Day | Event | Cases at risk | Share still waiting |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Signed | 10 | 90% |
| 40 | Still open at cutoff | 9 | 90% |
| 45 | Signed | 8 | 79% |
| 60 | Signed | 7 | 68% |
| 75 | Signed | 6 | 56% |
| 90 | Still open at cutoff | 5 | 56% |
| 120 | Signed | 4 | 42% |
| 150 | Still open at cutoff | 3 | 42% |
| 180 | Still open at cutoff | 2 | 42% |
| 200 | Still open at cutoff | 1 | 42% |
The share still waiting first falls to 50% or below at day 120, so the Kaplan-Meier median is 120 days: twice the naive figure. The 25th percentile (the point by which a quarter have signed) is 60 days. The 75th percentile is not reached, because the share still waiting never falls to a quarter, and the study should say exactly that. The survival-analysis literature gives the same rule: when the estimate stays above 50% for the whole observation period, the median cannot be determined, and medians are preferred to means because censoring distorts the mean.
What to record so the study can explain delays
A duration figure is only useful if a reader can see what slows a stage. Record, at metadata level, the factors that plausibly extend each interval, then compare medians between groups once the cohort is large enough:
- whether client or customer contracts needed rights review before the agreement;
- whether the authorized contact changed during the stage;
- how many source systems the records sit in;
- whether the company's records needed language or format work before handoff.
These are candidate explanations to test, not findings. SourceX has not yet published stage-duration figures, so any number you see quoted should come with its cohort, cutoff and at-risk counts. The older summary in how long data deals take gives ranges in words; a published study would replace them with measured medians.
Which opportunities should enter the study?
Only companies that could qualify, screened at metadata level before introduction. Companies in the U.S., Canada and the EU qualify, as do companies in the UK, Australia, New Zealand, India, Singapore, South Africa, Latin America, the UAE and Saudi Arabia when at least 70% of the data is in English.
The company also needs 50+ full-time employees at peak (contractors excluded), a documented operating history, rights to license its records and an authorized contact. A partner can note which systems hold the records, how many years they cover, who owns them and who can authorize a licensing discussion; worksheets such as the professional consulting screening worksheet show the format. Partners never collect raw records. Dataset demand, the rights review result and any offer stay unknown until SourceX reviews the company.
The company's payout and the reward run on the same clock, not the same money
The company is paid its Actual Supplier Payout under its own agreement; the partner's reward is funded separately by SourceX and becomes payable only after that payment. Illustrative only: an Actual Supplier Payout of $400,000 would mean a reward of $70,000, and $250,000 would mean $62,500. A partner guide such as the lead generation agency guide covers the partner role more broadly.
Next step
Refer a company. No cap on rewards. Default reward on a company's first qualifying transaction: the greater of $50,000 plus 5% and 15% of Actual Supplier Payout, with no cap; further qualifying transactions first agreed within 12 months of the first Closing pay 15%. Eligibility and payment conditions apply, including the USD 100,000 Minimum Transaction, and a signed Schedule A or addendum can differ. A lead, meeting or signature alone does not trigger payment.
If you are ready to start the clock on a qualified introduction, register as a partner, confirm the company against who qualifies, and read the payment timing in the program terms. Related studies are in the guides hub.