What the 2026 evidence points to for private equity in 2027

The short answer for 2027

A credible 2027 outlook starts from what 2026 measured, because 2027 data does not exist yet. Bain's Global Private Equity Report 2026 counted about 32,000 unsold companies worth $3.8 trillion and put buyout holding periods at exit at around seven years. McKinsey's Global Private Markets Report 2026 concluded that multiple expansion and cheap leverage, which produced 59 percent of PE returns between 2010 and 2022, have faded.

Together those findings set the guide for 2027 planning: more companies carried for longer, each expected to show operating gains it can document. Below, each 2026 signal becomes a question to watch, a scenario and a calendar entry. Nothing here forecasts deal counts, multiples or interest rates.

Which 2026 signals should shape a 2027 plan?

Five signals do most of the work. Each measures something different, so keep the measure beside the number when it goes into a board pack or LP update.

The PitchBook figure comes from its report on aging buyout portfolios and counts companies still held, not exits, so it does not contradict Bain's exit-based number. The ownership-transition estimate is from McKinsey's great ownership transfer research, which also counts more than one million of those businesses as viable sale candidates.

Will the exit backlog clear in 2027?

The 2026 evidence cannot say; it shows the length of the queue, not its speed. Even a strong exit year works through tens of thousands of companies slowly, so the prudent planning assumption is that most of today's holdings will still be owned at the end of 2027.

That shifts the operating agenda in two ways. Exit readiness becomes a portfolio-wide program rather than a project for the one company going to market. And every company needs an asset register a buyer can test: contracts, systems, intellectual property and the operational records the business has built up. Bain's wider findings are unpacked in our Bain 2026 report takeaways.

Will holding periods keep lengthening?

Bain's explanation for longer holds is that general partners keep assets to buy time to grow EBITDA. Its arithmetic shows the pressure: a deal that needed 5% EBITDA growth a decade ago now needs about 12% to reach a 2.5x return over five years.

Nothing in the 2026 data suggests that bar falls on its own. For 2027, many companies in year four or five will need a refreshed plan with new initiatives, named owners and stage gates, and each initiative will be judged on whether it moves EBITDA before the exit rather than after it.

Where will 2027 returns come from?

From operations, on the 2026 evidence. McKinsey reports that sponsors are applying AI to operating levers and that 53 percent of 300 surveyed LPs ranked a GP's value-creation strategy among their top five selection metrics, so LPs will read 2027 updates for proof that the operating model works.

Two cautions belong in the plan. AI programs will be judged by the lever they move, such as pricing, cost to serve or sales productivity, not by the number of pilots. And AI cuts both ways: some software and services companies face pressure on seat-based and labor-based pricing, covered in the SaaSpocalypse and PE-backed software.

What about companies facing refinancing or distress?

Plan for a split portfolio. Companies with loans coming due face refinancing decisions, and some will need a restructuring adviser more than a growth plan. The middle-market maturity wall guide and the restructuring outlook for 2027 cover that side.

One point holds across the split: a company that is sold, merged or wound down can still hold licensable records, as long as the data still exists. Before any system is retired, keep a complete export.

Three 2027 scenarios and what to do in each

Use scenarios rather than a single forecast. The responses in the right-hand column hold up whichever way the year turns.

A 2027 planning calendar for operating partners

Where data licensing fits in a 2027 value creation plan

Data licensing fits because it matches the 2026 evidence: it needs no new capital, no added leverage and no dilution, and it draws on records a company already holds. AI developers are moving from models that answer questions to agents that carry out work, and training those agents needs histories of real tasks, decisions and outcomes that rarely appear on the public web. The company keeps ownership, approves scope and price, and signs only if the terms work; the one-time payment typically arrives within about 60 days of invoicing once a buyer selects the data.

Before the 2027 budget round, run every portfolio company through a five-line records review:

• People: a US company that had 50+ full-time employees at peak (contractors excluded).
• Years: several years of documented operations, ideally with archives from retired systems.
• Systems: records spread across email, chat, CRM, finance, support, engineering and operations tools.
• Rights: the company created the records, and its client contracts and policies allow licensing.
• Sponsor: the owner, CEO, CFO or another authorized representative is willing to explore it.

The who qualifies page sets out the full baseline, and the company fit checker gives a preliminary, non-binding read without asking for contact details.

How the introduction and reward work

The operating partner introduces; SourceX and the company handle everything after that.

1. Register as a partner, then send the CEO your referral link or submit the company through the referral form.
2. SourceX confirms size, history, data breadth and rights with the company's sponsor.
3. The company lists its systems, years of history and export options in a data inventory.
4. SourceX and the company agree one all-in price and the license terms, typically exclusive for AI training for an agreed term.
5. AI labs and data buyers review the opportunity.
6. The agreement is signed, the data is prepared under redaction rules agreed at the outset and delivered, and the company is paid.
7. The partner reward is paid once SourceX has received its fee.

Partners earn 25% of the eligible platform fees SourceX actually collects from the referred company's licensing deals, capped at $100,000 per referred company. Rewards become payable only after the buyer pays and SourceX receives its fee, and no reward is guaranteed. The reward comes out of SourceX's fee, never the company's proceeds. Check your firm's policies on fees connected to portfolio companies first; the operating partner page covers the role in more depth.

What this outlook cannot tell you

• It contains no 2027 data. Every figure is a 2026 publication or, for PitchBook, an end-2024 measurement.
• The sources measure different things, such as exits versus companies still held, or survey answers versus portfolio data. Quote each figure with its basis.
• It does not forecast exit volumes, multiples, fundraising or rates.
• Data licensing is not a substitute for an exit and does not suit every company. Skip companies whose records mainly belong to their clients, are mostly consumer or health data, were deleted, or were already licensed for AI training.

Next step

Put the five-line records review on the agenda for your next portfolio review. When a company passes, register as a partner and make the introduction, or have the CEO apply directly at sourcex.si/apply with your referral link.