# Referral expected earnings spreadsheet guide | SourceX

Canonical: https://refer.sourcex.si/guides/referral-expected-earnings-calculator
Last updated: 2026-11-05

Work out two numbers per company and keep them apart. The completed figure is what you would receive if a deal closes: on the company's first qualifying transaction, the greater of USD 50,000 plus 5% and 15% of the Actual Supplier Payout you assume. The expected figure is that amount multiplied by your own odds that the company gets through every stage. The USD 50,000 floor applies once per referred company and is a minimum on one transaction, never a forecast. This guide builds a spreadsheet that holds both, with every probability left for you to enter.

It extends the [referral earnings calculator](/tools/referral-earnings-calculator), which returns the completed figure for one payout. The sheet below adds your odds, compares several companies and shows why a large deal can be worth less to plan around than a modest one.

## Set up the sheet: inputs only you can supply

Create one row per company you are considering. Three columns are inputs; everything else is a formula.

| Cell | Label | Type | Rule |
|---|---|---|---|
| B | Company (a description, not a name you share) | Input | "220-person freight broker" |
| C | Payout assumption | Input | A figure the company considers plausible, or a deliberately low guess |
| D | Completed figure | Formula | =IF(C<100000,0,MAX(50000+0.05*C,0.15*C)) for a first qualifying transaction; =0.15*C for a repeat first agreed within 12 months of the first Closing |
| E | Odds the owner qualifies and wants to proceed | Input | Your judgment, as a percentage; leave empty if unsure |
| F | Odds an agreement is signed, delivered, accepted and paid | Input | Your judgment; keep it conservative |
| G | Expected figure | Formula | =PRODUCT(D,E,F) |

Two odds columns are enough. Splitting the path into more stages adds precision you do not have; the extra columns mostly multiply guesses. If you prefer one combined number, put it in E and set F to 100%.

Do not type a probability you could not explain to a colleague. "The CEO asked for the introduction and the company has eight years of ticket history" is a reason. "Deals usually close" is not, because nobody has published a rate that says so.

## A two-company example (Illustrative)

Two fictional companies. The payout assumptions and odds are placeholders entered to show the arithmetic, not observed rates or quotes.

| Company | Payout assumption | Completed figure | Odds E | Odds F | Expected figure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A: 160-person dental services group | $120,000 | $56,000 | 60% | 50% | $16,800 |
| B: 900-person logistics operator | $800,000 | $120,000 | 30% | 20% | $7,200 |

Company B looks bigger on every measure but one. Its assumed payout is more than six times A's, yet the completed figure is only a little over twice as large, because the USD 50,000 floor does most of the work on A's deal: USD 50,000 plus 5% of $120,000 is $56,000, well above 15% of it, while B is paid a straight 15% of $800,000. And because the partner's honest odds for B are lower, its expected figure ends up below A's. Planning around B because it "could pay $120,000" would put the partner's time in the wrong place.

## Run a low and a high case, not a point estimate

Payout assumptions are the weakest input, so enter two: a low case and a high case, each with its own completed figure. Hold the odds constant to see how much of the spread comes from deal size alone.

| Company A case | Payout assumption | Completed figure | Expected at 30% combined odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low | $40,000 | $0 (below the USD 100,000 Minimum Transaction) | $0 |
| High | $250,000 | $62,500 | $18,750 |

Illustrative. The range is wide, and it should be: before SourceX has reviewed any records, nobody knows what a license would pay. The low case is the one to plan with, and here it is zero: a $40,000 payout sits under the USD 100,000 Minimum Transaction, so it earns nothing unless SourceX agrees otherwise in writing. If an introduction is still worth your time at a low case that clears the minimum, it is worth making.

## Checks before you trust the result

- **The floor once per company.** If you expect a renewal or a second dataset, do not add a second USD 50,000 floor. Give the first qualifying transaction its own row on the formula above; a further qualifying transaction first agreed within 12 months of the first Closing pays 15% of its own Actual Supplier Payout with no floor, and the [renewal scenarios](/guides/data-referral-renewal-cap) show how the two combine.
- **Your figure is not the company's.** Column C is what SourceX would pay the company. Your reward is calculated on it, paid separately by SourceX and never deducted from it, so the company's figure stays the same whatever you enter.
- **Reductions flow through.** If the company's payout is later reduced or reversed by a cancellation, refund or chargeback, your reward is recalculated on the reduced Actual Supplier Payout and falls proportionately with it. A buyer refund that does not reduce the company's payout changes nothing. A low case already allows for some of this.
- **Attribution is an assumption.** The sheet assumes your introduction is the first valid one within the 90-day window; only one partner is credited per company.
- **Timing is outside the formula.** A reward becomes payable after SourceX has paid the referred company under its signed agreement and the payout conditions in the program terms are met, including finance approval and your tax and payment details. The payment deadline is 60 calendar days after the later of the Acquisition Partner's final written acceptance of the complete, validated dataset and completed handoff; if a condition is still open at that deadline, the reward is paid promptly once it is met, and no new 60-day period begins. See [when a reward becomes payable](/questions/when-does-a-potential-reward-become-payable).
- **A signed Schedule A or addendum can differ** from the default rate, floor, base or minimum. If you have one, replace the formula in column D with its terms.

## What raises or lowers your odds

Odds E rests on the baseline. A company needs 50+ full-time employees at peak (contractors excluded), documented operating history, rights to license and an authorized contact. Companies in the U.S., Canada and the EU qualify, as do companies in the UK, Australia, New Zealand, India, Singapore, South Africa, Latin America, the UAE and Saudi Arabia when at least 70% of the data is in English. If you cannot confirm any one of those, E should be low.

Odds F rests on things you can only partly see: how many years of records exist, in which systems, who owns them, and whether client or vendor contracts restrict their use. Ask the decision-maker those questions at metadata level; never ask for records. A reward becomes payable after SourceX has paid the referred company under its signed agreement and the payout conditions in the program terms are met, including finance approval and your tax and payment details.

For a printable version that tracks several companies over time, use the [earnings estimation worksheet](/resources/a-reusable-worksheet-for-referral-earnings-estimation), and the [payout calculation examples](/resources/payout-calculation-examples) show more completed-figure arithmetic. The [rewards page](/rewards) sets out the full calculation and conditions.

## Next step

> **Refer a company. No cap on rewards.** Default reward on a company's first qualifying transaction: the greater of $50,000 plus 5% and 15% of Actual Supplier Payout, with no cap; further qualifying transactions first agreed within 12 months of the first Closing pay 15%. Eligibility and payment conditions apply, including the USD 100,000 Minimum Transaction, and a signed Schedule A or addendum can differ. A lead, meeting or signature alone does not trigger payment.

If one row still looks worth your time at its low case and you can name the decision-maker, [register as a partner](/register), confirm the baseline on [who qualifies](/who-qualifies) and read the [program terms](/terms).

## How should a partner's cash forecast show pending and payable rewards separately?

Give every row one status and total each status on its own line. A reward is pending while the company has not been paid; it is accrued once the company has been paid but a payment condition is still open; it is payable once every condition is met. Only payable amounts belong in a cash forecast, and the expected figure from the sheet above never does.

The sheet above answers whether an introduction is worth your time. A finance manager asks a different question: how much cash arrives, and in which month. The [program terms](/terms), Version 2026-10-22.2, since replaced by version 2026-11-04, keep those questions apart. Before the company is paid, any reward shown is an estimate based on proposed compensation, and section 5 says it plainly: "Estimates shown in the portal or calculator are projections, not promises." Payment is due 60 calendar days after day 0, the first date by which handoff is complete and the Acquisition Partner has given its final written acceptance of the complete, validated dataset, and it also needs the Acquisition Partner's payment to SourceX in cleared funds, payment of the company's compensation, SourceX finance approval and your payment and tax details. If a condition is still open on day 60, the reward is paid promptly once it is met, and no new 60-day period begins.

**The cash-status forecast template.** Add these columns to the right of column G in the sheet above, one row per company. A parent and its subsidiaries count as one referred company, so the USD 50,000 floor applies once and a group gets one row.

| Column | Label | What to enter | Rule |
|---|---|---|---|
| H | Status | Pending, Accrued or Payable | Set from facts; column G stays your planning number |
| I | Paid to the company so far | What SourceX shows for your referral | Zero until money reaches the company |
| J | Accrued reward | =IF(I=0,0,MAX(50000+0.05*I,0.15*I)) on a first qualifying transaction; =0.15*I on a repeat within 12 months | Uses actual payments only: the USD 50,000 element with the first installment that meets every condition, the 5% element as each installment is paid |
| K | Day 0 | The later of acceptance and completed handoff | Empty until both have happened |
| L | Deadline | =K+60 | Calendar days |
| M | Open conditions | Cleared Acquisition Partner funds, the company's payment, finance approval, your details | Name each one still open |
| N | Cash month | The month you expect payment | Fill only when column M is empty |

The portal's five statuses on the [rewards page](/rewards) map onto these columns roughly: Estimated is pending; Approved and Processing sit at the payable end once your tax and payment details are complete; Paid moves the row out of the forecast and into your actuals.

**A forecast at 30 September (Illustrative).** Five fictional companies; A and B continue the two-company example above.

| Company | Facts at 30 September | Pending | Accrued, condition open | Payable, cash month | Governing term |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A: 160-person dental services group | Paid $120,000 in August; finance approval still open | $0 | $56,000 | Not yet | Section 5 conditions |
| B: 900-person logistics operator | Portal estimate on $800,000 of proposed compensation; nothing signed | $120,000 | $0 | Not yet | Section 4: an estimate before the company is paid |
| C: 240-person engineering firm | Paid USD 100,000; day 0 was August 20; every condition met | $0 | $0 | $55,000, by October 19 | Section 5: 60 days after the later anchor |
| D: 130-person insurance agency | Records not selected after review | $0 | $0 | $0 | Section 4: unclosed data is not Actual Supplier Payout |
| E: 410-person distributor | Paid $180,000; day 0 June 1, deadline July 31; your tax details still missing | $0 | $59,000 | Promptly once the details arrive | Section 5: no new 60-day period |
| Column totals | Kept apart | $120,000 | $115,000 | $55,000 | Three lines, never one |

How to read it:

- **The October cash line is $55,000.** Adding the three columns would say $290,000, and $120,000 of that would come from company B, a deal that may never close.
- **B is an estimate, not money.** 15% of $800,000 is $120,000, so that is what the portal shows before anything is signed. Its planning value in column G above is $7,200, the honest number for deciding how much effort to spend; neither figure belongs in cash.
- **E is the delayed case, and the fix is yours.** Day 60 passed on July 31 with your details missing. Once they arrive, payment follows promptly; the deadline does not move to the new date.
- **D stays visible at zero with its reason**, which keeps an old estimate from creeping back into a later forecast.

There is a tax reason to keep the accrued column out of cash as well. For a partner on the cash method, IRS Publication 538 says income generally counts in the year it is actually or constructively received, and an amount held back by substantial restrictions is not constructively received; an accrued reward with an open condition has not been paid or made available to you. How an accrual-method firm treats that column is a question for its accountant. This is general information, not tax advice.

Single rewards are walked through each status in [estimated vs payable referral commission](/questions/estimated-vs-payable-referral-commission), and the deadline mechanics are in the [60-day payment conditions guide](/guides/referral-reward-60-day-payment-conditions). A company's own cash forecasts, as records it might license, are a separate subject covered in [cash forecast vs actual records](/data-types/cash-forecast-vs-actual-variance-analysis).

## How do you describe earnings potential without an average-earnings claim?

Describe the rule, the floor and the conditions, and say plainly that SourceX has not published an average, typical or median reward. Never let the USD 50,000 floor, an Illustrative example or one good result stand in for what a reader should expect.

The risk lies in how readers hear numbers. The FTC's Endorsement Guides, written for advertising, describe the effect well. Under 16 CFR 255.2, an advertisement that features someone's experience with a central attribute is likely to be read as showing what people generally achieve; without support for that, the advertiser should clearly disclose the generally expected result, and the Guides treat a brief note that results are not typical as generally insufficient. They also warn that a mean pulled up by a few large outcomes can mislead, and suggest a median in some cases. Whether and how the Guides apply to your firm's own materials is a question for counsel; what matters here is the reading they describe.

A program like this one has no meaningful average to offer yet. Rewards have no cap, a transaction under USD 100,000 pays nothing unless SourceX agrees in writing, an introduction can end with nothing paid, and SourceX has published no conversion rates or typical payouts. An average of the few cases that happened to close would describe those cases, not the next introduction.

**The earnings claim review worksheet.** Put every sentence about earnings in a pitch deck, newsletter, proposal or internal memo through four questions. Is the base right: Actual Supplier Payout, not deal value? Does the floor travel with its conditions: a first qualifying transaction, the USD 100,000 minimum, once per company? Is every example labeled Illustrative and arithmetically true? Does anything imply a typical or average result?

| Draft sentence | Problem | Verdict | Use instead |
|---|---|---|---|
| "Partners earn $55,000 on average." | No published average exists, and a few outcomes are not representative | Drop | "SourceX has not published average or typical rewards." |
| "Earn at least USD 50,000 per introduction." | The floor is per referred company, on its first qualifying transaction only, and only when the payout clears the USD 100,000 minimum | Rewrite | "At least USD 50,000 on a referred company's first qualifying transaction, if the payment conditions are met." |
| "You get the greater of $50,000 plus 5% and 15% of the deal." | Wrong base: the reward is not calculated on the deal value or the Acquisition Partner's price | Rewrite | "the greater of $50,000 plus 5% and 15% of Actual Supplier Payout, with no cap: what SourceX actually pays the company you introduce, not the deal value." |
| "We were paid $62,500 for one introduction last year." | One real result reads as the expected one | Keep out of marketing | Report it internally as a dated, paid amount |
| "This company could be worth $120,000 to us." | Treats one assumed payout as a forecast for one company | Drop | Use the planning figure from column G, internally only |
| "Illustrative: a $250,000 payout gives a $62,500 reward." | None; labeled and correct | Keep | Keep the label and show the formula |

If your firm later wants to publish its own outcomes, publish the method with them: count every introduction in a dated cohort, declines and zeros included; mark the unresolved ones as open rather than dropping them; report how many were paid, the median and the range of paid rewards, and the cohort's size and date. SourceX has not published cohort figures of this kind, so any such numbers would be your firm's own. For the client-facing side, see [estimating referral earnings in a client conversation](/guides/how-to-use-referral-earnings-estimation-in-a-client-conversation) and [explaining the reward in an intro email](/guides/100000-data-referral-introduction-email); the [earnings calculator](/tools/referral-earnings-calculator) returns the completed figure for one payout, and the [guides](/guides) library has more.

> **Refer a company. No cap on rewards.** Default reward on a company's first qualifying transaction: the greater of $50,000 plus 5% and 15% of Actual Supplier Payout, with no cap; further qualifying transactions first agreed within 12 months of the first Closing pay 15%. Eligibility and payment conditions apply, including the USD 100,000 Minimum Transaction, and a signed Schedule A or addendum can differ. A lead, meeting or signature alone does not trigger payment.

Once your forecast keeps pending, accrued and payable apart, and your copy carries no average, [register as a partner](/register), check each company against [who qualifies](/who-qualifies) and keep the [program terms](/terms) version beside the sheet.

## Sources

- https://refer.sourcex.si/terms
- https://refer.sourcex.si/rewards
- https://refer.sourcex.si/resources/payout-calculation-examples
- https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-16/chapter-I/subchapter-B/part-255/section-255.2
- https://www.irs.gov/publications/p538