# Uncertain referral income model: plan without odds

Canonical: https://refer.sourcex.si/guides/how-to-model-referral-income-when-no-deal-is-guaranteed
Last updated: 2026-11-04

Model it as named scenarios tied to the program terms, not as an expected value. Give each introduced company a ledger state, keep its planned income at zero until SourceX has paid the company and every payment condition has cleared, and run four cases side by side: zero, delayed, reduced and repeat. If a reward becomes payable, a first qualifying transaction pays the greater of $50,000 plus 5% and 15% of Actual Supplier Payout, with no cap, and a repeat inside the Repeat Window pays 15%; until then it is a possibility, not earned income.

This is the opposite of an odds-weighted forecast. The [expected earnings spreadsheet](/guides/referral-expected-earnings-calculator) multiplies a payout assumption by your own odds; this planner declines to, and replaces odds with events you can document and terms you can quote.

## Why the planner uses no probabilities

SourceX's rewards page says it does not provide income projections and does not offer estimates or guarantees regarding potential earnings, and the program terms describe estimates in the portal or calculator as projections, not promises. No conversion rate, average payout or time-to-payment figure has been published. A probability typed into a cell is therefore a guess with a percent sign, and a guess multiplied by a payout guess produces a figure that looks like a forecast and travels like one into a budget or a board pack.

The planner takes three inputs instead:

- **Amounts** come only from the formula: on a first qualifying transaction, the greater of $50,000 plus 5% and 15% of Actual Supplier Payout, with no cap; on a repeat first agreed within 12 months of the first Closing, 15%; applied to a payout figure you label as an assumption until it is paid.
- **Timing** comes only from triggers in the terms: acceptance, handoff, the supplier payment and the remaining payment conditions.
- **Status** changes only on a documented event, never on a feeling about how a conversation went.

## The calculation base and the conditions that govern it

The base is Actual Supplier Payout, and the terms define it narrowly. It means compensation actually paid to the supplier for selected data that reaches Closing and the qualifying completed handoff, under the supplier licensing agreement, including any signed Confirmation and amendments. It excludes separately itemized taxes and expense reimbursements, the partner reward, SourceX's own fees and the Acquisition Partner's full transaction price. Indicative ranges, unclosed data and unpaid supplier amounts are not Actual Supplier Payout, so none of them can appear in the model as a base.

| Term | What it does to the model | Where it is set |
|---|---|---|
| Credit | The earliest valid introduction inside the 90-day attribution window takes the credit, but not before the company submits a verified application; one partner per company | Terms, section 2 |
| Existing relationship | A company with any earlier lead, account or email correspondence with SourceX is not credited to a later partner | Terms, section 3 |
| Minimum, floor and repeats | A transaction qualifies only at USD 100,000 or more of Actual Supplier Payout unless SourceX agrees in writing; the USD 50,000 element applies once per referred company, to its first qualifying transaction; repeats first agreed within 12 months of the first Closing pay 15% with no floor; there is no cap per transaction, per company or in total | Terms, section 4 |
| Installments | The reward is payable proportionately as each installment is paid: the USD 50,000 element with the first installment that meets every condition, the 5% element proportionately | Rewards page |
| Payment conditions | Acquisition Partner acceptance, Acquisition Partner payment received by SourceX in cleared funds, payment of the supplier compensation, SourceX finance approval, your payment and tax details, and a lawful payment | Terms, section 5 |
| Deadline | Within 60 calendar days of the later event: completed handoff, or the Acquisition Partner issuing final written acceptance of the complete, validated dataset; a condition still open at the deadline is paid promptly once met, with no new 60-day period | Terms, section 5 |
| Reductions | A cancellation, refund or chargeback that lawfully reduces the supplier payout reduces the reward proportionately, as the reduced scenario below shows | Terms, section 6 |
| Signed exceptions | A different rate, base or floor in a signed Schedule A, or a signed addendum, prevails over the default | Terms, section 8 |

For the floor, a parent company plus its subsidiaries is one company, so a group with several licensing entities gets the USD 50,000 element once, on its first qualifying transaction, not once per entity.

## The probability-free scenario planner

The planner has two parts: a ledger that says where each introduced company stands, and a scenario sheet that says what each documented outcome would be worth and when.

**Part 1: the ledger.** One row per company, moved forward only by the event in the second column.

| Ledger state | Event that moves the company here | Amount in the plan | Amount shown as possible |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Introduced | You submitted the introduction under a signed Channel Partner Agreement | $0 | Nothing yet |
| 2. Credited | The company submitted a verified application and yours was the first valid introduction | $0 | Nothing yet; no payout exists |
| 3. Agreement signed | The company signed its supplier licensing agreement | $0 | The formula on any agreed figure you know, labeled possible |
| 4. Closing and handoff | Selected data reached Closing and the completed handoff | $0 | Same |
| 5. Accepted | The Acquisition Partner gave final written acceptance; the 60-day deadline runs from the later of acceptance and handoff | $0 | Same |
| 6. Supplier paid | SourceX paid the company | $0 until the remaining conditions clear | the greater of $50,000 plus 5% and 15% of what was actually paid on a first qualifying transaction, 15% on a repeat |
| 7. Payable | Cleared Acquisition Partner funds, finance approval and your tax and payment details are all in place | The reward | Not needed |
| 8. Paid | The reward reached your account | The reward, as cash | Not needed |

A probability, an expected value and an optimistic date are deliberately missing. The [payable-date question](/questions/when-does-a-potential-reward-become-payable) covers the gap between states 6 and 7 in more detail.

**Part 2: the scenario sheet.** Each scenario is defined by an event and the term that governs it, not by a likelihood.

| Scenario | Defining event | Resulting amount | Timing | Governing term |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zero | No verified application, an existing SourceX relationship, a decline in review, no Closing or a payout below the USD 100,000 Minimum Transaction | $0 | Never | Sections 2 to 4; the payout definition |
| Delayed | A payment condition is still open at the 60-day deadline | The formula amount | Paid promptly once the condition clears; no new 60-day period | Section 5 |
| Reduced | The supplier payout is reduced or reversed after payment | The formula recomputed on the reduced total; no cap to absorb the change | Any excess already paid is adjusted | Section 6 |
| Repeat | A further qualifying transaction is first agreed within 12 months of the first Closing | 15% of its payout, with no second floor and no cap | With that transaction's own installments | Section 4 |

## One introduction, four outcomes (Illustrative)

Illustrative. One generic company, four alternative histories, invented amounts. None is a forecast, a quote or a completed deal.

A partner at an accounting firm introduces the CEO of a 300-person freight broker, and the introduction plays out four different ways.

**Zero.** The company's verified application shows that it exchanged emails with SourceX a year earlier. Under section 3 it is not a new company, so no partner is credited. The plan showed $0 throughout, so there is nothing to reverse, which is the point of keeping it there.

**Delayed.** The company is paid an Actual Supplier Payout of $250,000, giving a reward of $62,500 (USD 50,000 plus 5%, which beats 15% at this size). Acceptance and handoff are complete, but the partner's tax form is still missing when the 60-day deadline passes. The reward is paid promptly once the form arrives, and no new 60-day period starts. The plan moves $62,500 into income in the month the condition clears, not the month of acceptance.

**Reduced.** The company is paid in two installments, $160,000 and then $240,000, under one first qualifying transaction. The first installment carries $58,000 (the USD 50,000 element plus 5% of $160,000) and the second $12,000 (5% of $240,000), for a cumulative $70,000 on a cumulative payout of $400,000; the 15% alternative, $60,000, is lower. Later, $80,000 of the second installment is reversed, so the payout falls to $320,000. The formula on $320,000 gives $66,000, below the $70,000 already paid, so the reward is recalculated to $66,000 and the $4,000 excess is adjusted. A buyer refund on its own, with no reduction of the supplier payout, would have changed nothing.

**Repeat.** The company is paid $800,000 on its first qualifying transaction, and the reward is $120,000: above $500,000 of payout, 15% beats USD 50,000 plus 5% ($90,000 here). A renewal first agreed ten months after the first Closing adds a $120,000 payment to the company; it meets the Minimum Transaction and falls inside the 12-month Repeat Window, so it pays 15%, $18,000, with no second USD 50,000 element, for $138,000 in all. Had the renewal been agreed after the window closed, it would have paid nothing. Had a later reduction cut the first payout to $500,000, the reward on it would fall to $75,000, because there is no cap to absorb the change.

| Step | Paid to the company | Cumulative Actual Supplier Payout | Cumulative reward |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zero: existing relationship | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Delayed: one payment | $250,000 | $250,000 | $62,500 |
| Reduced: first installment | $160,000 | $160,000 | $58,000 |
| Reduced: second installment | $240,000 | $400,000 | $70,000 |
| Reduced: after the reversal | $80,000 reversed | $320,000 | $66,000 |
| Repeat: first transaction | $800,000 | $800,000 | $120,000 |
| Repeat: after the renewal | $120,000 added | $920,000 | $138,000 |

Two parts of the table carry the planning lesson: the first row, because every company in a pipeline can end there, and the last four, because they show that a large outcome has no ceiling, can grow with a repeat inside the window and can still move after payment. The [renewal scenarios](/guides/data-referral-renewal-cap) and the [payout calculation examples](/resources/payout-calculation-examples) work more arithmetic, and the [earnings calculator](/tools/referral-earnings-calculator) returns the formula amount for a single payout.

## Reconcile what is payable, and label what is not yet earned

Once a month, take every company at ledger state 6 or later through five steps:

1. **Base.** Match the reward to the payment basis SourceX states for it: what the company was actually paid, without separately itemized taxes or expense reimbursements.
2. **Formula.** Recompute each transaction: the greater of $50,000 plus 5% and 15% of Actual Supplier Payout, with no cap, on the first qualifying transaction, with the USD 50,000 element once per company, treating a parent and its subsidiaries as one, and 15% on repeats first agreed inside the Repeat Window.
3. **Reductions.** Apply any reduction or reversal to the transaction's payout and note any adjustment.
4. **Conditions.** Confirm cleared Acquisition Partner funds, finance approval and your own payment and tax details; an open item on your side is the one delay you control.
5. **Dates.** Record the later of acceptance and handoff, and the 60-day deadline that follows it.

Then present two lines that never merge: income (states 7 and 8) and possible amounts (states 3 to 6), the second with its scenario label. For a cash-method taxpayer, IRS Publication 538 says gross income includes items actually or constructively received during the tax year, and that income is not constructively received when control of its receipt is subject to substantial restrictions or limitations. A reward still waiting on payment conditions has not been paid or made available, which is why a cash-basis plan leaves it out. This is general information, not tax advice; your adviser decides how the rules apply to you, and the [estimated taxes question](/questions/estimated-taxes-on-referral-income) covers setting money aside once rewards arrive.

Partners who already live with lumpy income will recognize the shape: the [business broker income page](/questions/business-broker-income-when-deal-falls-through) describes success fees that vanish when a listing dies.

## Which introductions earn a row in the planner

A row starts only when an introduction exists: a company whose CEO wants the conversation, submitted by a partner who has signed the SourceX Channel Partner Agreement (a copy signed while the agreement was titled Channel Partner Non-Circumvention and Non-Disclosure Agreement still holds as signed). The CEO authorizes a licensing discussion and signs for the company.

The published fit facts decide whether the row has any non-zero scenario at all: the company needs 50+ full-time employees at peak (contractors do not count toward it), an operating history it has documented, rights to license the records and an authorized contact. Companies in the U.S., Canada and the EU qualify, as do companies in the UK, Australia, New Zealand, India, Singapore, South Africa, Latin America, the UAE and Saudi Arabia when at least 70% of the data is in English. Partners discover fit at metadata level and never handle records or credentials. What stays unknown until SourceX reviews the company, whether its records match a current program, what rights it holds and what any license would pay, is exactly why the planner keeps the possible column separate. More planning guides sit in [the guides hub](/guides), and the [rewards page](/rewards) sets out the formula and statuses.

## Next step

> **Refer a company. No cap on rewards.** Default reward on a company's first qualifying transaction: the greater of $50,000 plus 5% and 15% of Actual Supplier Payout, with no cap; further qualifying transactions first agreed within 12 months of the first Closing pay 15%. Eligibility and payment conditions apply, including the USD 100,000 Minimum Transaction, and a signed Schedule A or addendum can differ. A lead, meeting or signature alone does not trigger payment.

If your plan can carry a zero in every row and you still have a company worth introducing, request a [partner link](/register), set the company beside [who qualifies](/who-qualifies) and read the [program terms](/terms) in full before the first ledger row exists.

## Sources

- https://refer.sourcex.si/terms
- https://refer.sourcex.si/rewards
- https://refer.sourcex.si/who-qualifies
- https://www.irs.gov/publications/p538