# CFO referral earnings forecast: scenarios, no odds | SourceX

Canonical: https://refer.sourcex.si/guides/how-to-describe-referral-economics-without-treating-them-as-forecast-revenue
Last updated: 2026-11-04

Describe a SourceX reward as a one-off, conditional amount that exists only after a company you introduced is credited to you and completes a qualifying, paid licensing deal under the published terms. Until then you can state the formula, on the company's first qualifying transaction the greater of $50,000 plus 5% and 15% of Actual Supplier Payout, with no cap, and the conditions, but not an amount. Keep it out of revenue forecasts, budgets and pipeline totals, and record a reward when it is paid.

The same discipline applies to the client's side. What SourceX pays a company is not known at an introduction either, and an advisor who describes it as expected income has made the same mistake twice. This page is for fractional CFOs and accounting practice leaders. It gives no legal, tax, accounting or professional-conduct advice; how your practice records anything it receives is a question for your own accountant and tax adviser.

## Two amounts that do not exist at the introduction

**The company's licensing payment.** SourceX's how-it-works page describes an indicative licensing estimate at application, an indicative offer the company agrees to or counters, and a Dataset Deal Confirmation, signed by the company and SourceX, that fixes the deal. Delivered data is then reviewed for up to 30 days, data that has not closed by its deadline is treated as declined, and payment is due within 60 calendar days after SourceX receives a valid invoice. SourceX does not publish how offers are priced, so nobody outside the deal can turn an introduction into a figure.

**Your reward.** It is derived from the first amount and cannot run ahead of it. Section 4 of the terms says that before supplier payment any reward shown is an estimate based on proposed supplier compensation, and section 5 adds: "Estimates shown in the portal or calculator are projections, not promises." The sample partner agreement is plainer still: "Indicative ranges, unclosed data and unpaid supplier amounts are not Actual Supplier Payout." Until SourceX has paid the company, the base of the calculation is zero.

## The uncertain reward scenario worksheet

Keep one worksheet per introduction. Each row is a scenario you can only enter on a dated record, never on a hunch. There is no probability column and no total row, by design: SourceX publishes no conversion rates, and a total of possibilities is a forecast with the arithmetic hidden.

| Scenario | The dated record that puts you here | What governs it | What you may say | Where it lives |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S0. You take the unpaid route | Your written decision, or a reviewer's answer that rules out pay | Your own rules; the company applies itself | "No reward; the company is paid the same" | The client file |
| S1. The CEO declines or never replies | Your dated note of the answer | The CEO decides | "No introduction was made" | The client file |
| S2. SourceX already knew the company | SourceX's duplicate decision | Terms, section 3 | "Not credited, so no reward" | Memo, closed |
| S3. Credited, but no deal closes | A credit decision, then a declined or expired deal | Terms, sections 2 and 5; partner agreement, section 2.6 | "No reward; time and review earn nothing" | Memo, closed |
| S4. A deal is in progress | Status reads Estimated | Terms, sections 4 and 5 | "Nothing is payable; any figure shown is an estimate" | Memo, amount left blank |
| S5. SourceX has paid the company; conditions remain | Status reads Eligible or Approved | Terms, section 5 | "A reward can be calculated; it is not yet payable" | Memo, with the status word |
| S6. Reward paid | Status reads Paid, and your payment record | Terms, section 5 | The amount received | Your books, as your accountant advises |
| S7. The company's payout is later cut or reversed | SourceX's explanation and calculation | Terms, section 6; the reward reduces in proportion to the payout | "The reward has been recalculated" | Your books, adjusted as your accountant advises |

Two rows deserve a note. In S5 the remaining conditions are the ones section 5 lists: cleared payment to SourceX, finance approval, your payment and tax details, and lawful payment, with the deadline running 60 calendar days from the later of the Acquisition Partner's final written acceptance and completed handoff. In S7 the reward is recalculated on the company's reduced Actual Supplier Payout: a cancellation, refund or chargeback that lawfully reduces the payout reduces the reward proportionately, and any excess already paid is adjusted.

## Arithmetic you may show, and why it is not a forecast (Illustrative)

Illustrative. The letters stand for amounts already paid; they explain the formula after the fact and predict nothing.

Call the amount SourceX has actually paid the company for its first qualifying transaction P. The reward is the greater of USD 50,000 plus 5% of P and 15% of P, and P counts only if it is at least USD 100,000, unless SourceX agrees in writing. If SourceX later pays the same company a second amount Q for a further transaction first agreed within 12 months of the first Closing, that repeat pays 15% of Q; the USD 50,000 element belongs to the first transaction alone and does not return on a repeat, renewal or amendment. No cap limits the total, however many qualifying transactions follow. If a payout is later reduced, the reward on it is reduced in proportion, as the terms describe.

Every line starts from an amount SourceX has already paid. None of them says what any introduction will produce, and the same arithmetic run on a hoped-for payout would be a forecast wearing a formula.

## Phrases that turn a possibility into revenue

| Phrase to drop | Why it misleads | Say instead |
|---|---|---|
| "Expected referral income this year" | Implies a rate and a timetable nobody publishes | "Three introductions open; none payable" |
| "Pipeline value" | Adds up amounts that do not exist | "Open introductions, by status word" |
| "At least USD 50,000 per client" as a headline | The floor belongs to a first qualifying transaction that is actually paid; it predicts nothing | "A formula on a paid transaction, with a USD 100,000 minimum; an introduction can end at nothing at any stage" |
| "Recurring referral revenue" | Repeats pay only when first agreed within 12 months of the first Closing, and only once paid | "A reward per paid transaction, if any, inside a fixed window" |
| "Your company should get about this much" | The payout is fixed only in a signed Confirmation | "SourceX gives an indicative estimate; the Confirmation sets the payout" |
| "The calculator says we will make it" | The terms call calculator estimates projections | "The calculator shows arithmetic on an amount I typed in" |

Whether a received reward is ever recurring in your own reporting is weighed on [one-time reward versus recurring commission](/compare/one-time-referral-fee-vs-recurring-commission), and the five amounts in one introduction are separated in [channel revenue versus supplier payout](/guides/the-difference-between-channel-revenue-and-supplier-payout). If your firm still needs a cash plan, the [zero-base referral budget](/guides/how-to-build-a-conservative-referral-budget-with-zero-as-a-scenario) starts from a year in which nothing pays.

## Participation, independence and pay decide whether there is a worksheet

If your rules do not let you accept a reward for this client, the worksheet has one row, S0, and the economics are simply that the client is paid the same and you receive nothing. Two kinds of restriction decide that. Role-specific ones change with the client: the services you or your firm perform for it, attest work, or a role in which you sign for the company. Jurisdiction-specific ones change with you: the boards that license you, the bodies you belong to and where you practice. Neither is answered here; the [accountant's service-and-jurisdiction review](/guides/before-an-accountant-accepts-a-referral-reward-check-the-applicable-rules) lists what to ask your board, professional body or counsel.

Whatever you tell a client about the money should match the wording your reviewer cleared. The [reviewed client disclosure](/guides/the-client-disclosure-a-finance-advisor-should-review-before-referring) puts the basis and the conditions in two lines, and nothing in it is a number.

## One sentence each for the client, your partners and the plan

**To the client:** "If your company licenses data to SourceX after my introduction, SourceX may pay me a reward on your first qualifying transaction, by default the greater of $50,000 plus 5% and 15% of Actual Supplier Payout, with no cap, that is, of what it actually pays your company; it never comes out of your payout, and nothing is owed to anyone unless a deal closes and the company is paid."

**To your partners:** "We have three open introductions, one marked Estimated and two not yet credited. None is payable. We will report a reward when its status reads Paid."

**In the practice plan:** a line of text, not a figure: "Referral rewards: recorded when received; no amount planned." If the practice is ever valued or sold, the same line saves a buyer from mistaking a past reward for income that repeats.

## Paid or unpaid, the client's path is the same

On the paid route, a dated answer from your reviewer permits a reward, you give the disclosure it requires, the CEO wants the introduction, and you register, sign the SourceX Channel Partner Agreement and submit. On the unpaid route you tell the CEO SourceX exists and the company applies on its own. Either way the company is paid the same amount, because section 4 says the reward "is paid separately by SourceX and is never deducted from the supplier's agreed compensation." If you are already registered and want nothing for one client, the terms are silent, so ask SourceX in writing before submitting.

## What must be true before row S1 can even start

A worksheet only opens for a company worth introducing. SourceX screens on full-time headcount at peak (50 or more, contractors excluded), years of records the company created itself, its rights to license them and a CEO who authorizes the discussion, and it checks relevance to a current program in review. Credit then goes to the first valid introduction within the 90-day attribution window, once the company submits a verified application, decided from dated records. You learn those facts from the CEO, never from the client's books or files.

## Where scenario wording can still mislead

- **A list reads like a funnel.** Eight rows invite someone to add percentages. Refuse; the rows are states, not odds.
- **The floor anchors.** Repeating USD 50,000 in every sentence makes it sound like the usual outcome. State the formula once, beside the conditions and the minimum.
- **Status can move backward.** A reduction or reversal of the company's payout moves a paid reward into S7.
- **Dates are not yours to promise.** The payment deadline runs from the Acquisition Partner's acceptance and the handoff, and a late condition is paid promptly once met, with no new 60-day period.

**Method note.** The worksheet and phrase table were built on 2026-10-27 from SourceX's terms (version 2026-10-22.2, with the reward arithmetic brought to version 2026-11-04 on 2026-11-04), its two how-it-works pages, its partner agreement sample and its screening page. They describe states and wording only; SourceX publishes no conversion rates, typical payouts or time-to-payment figures, so none appear here.

## Next step

> **Refer a company. No cap on rewards.** Default reward on a company's first qualifying transaction: the greater of $50,000 plus 5% and 15% of Actual Supplier Payout, with no cap; further qualifying transactions first agreed within 12 months of the first Closing pay 15%. Eligibility and payment conditions apply, including the USD 100,000 Minimum Transaction, and a signed Schedule A or addendum can differ. A lead, meeting or signature alone does not trigger payment.

When your own rules allow a reward and a client's CEO wants the conversation, [register as a partner](/register), set the company beside [who qualifies](/who-qualifies) and read sections 4 to 6 of the [program terms](/terms) so the worksheet matches them; the [earnings calculator](/tools/referral-earnings-calculator) is arithmetic, not a forecast, and the stages are on [how it works](/how-it-works). More guides are in the [guides hub](/guides).

## Sources

- https://refer.sourcex.si/terms
- https://refer.sourcex.si/how-it-works
- https://sourcex.si/how-it-works
- https://sourcex.si/documents/partner/SourceX_Channel_Partner_Agreement_Sample.pdf
- https://refer.sourcex.si/who-qualifies