# Conservative referral revenue budget: zero first | SourceX

Canonical: https://refer.sourcex.si/guides/how-to-build-a-conservative-referral-budget-with-zero-as-a-scenario
Last updated: 2026-11-04

Budget the referral effort as a cost your firm can carry in a year when referral revenue is zero, and set the revenue line itself at zero. Move a dollar into the forecast only when a dated event in the program terms puts it there: SourceX has paid the referred company, finance has approved the reward, or the reward has been paid. Then test two other years against the same cost: one where a real reward slips past year-end, and one where a single reward is the whole result.

For the possible reward on each individual introduction, see [how to model referral income when no deal is guaranteed](/guides/how-to-model-referral-income-when-no-deal-is-guaranteed). This page sits one level up, in the firm's annual budget: how much effort to fund, what to book and in which period. A company weighing whether to license its records faces the mirror image of this question, and the guide to [budgeting one-time licensing income](/guides/how-to-budget-one-time-revenue) covers that side.

## The calculation base and the terms that decide its timing

The base is Actual Supplier Payout, the compensation SourceX actually pays the referred company for selected data that reaches Closing and the qualifying completed handoff. Indicative ranges, unclosed data and unpaid supplier amounts are not Actual Supplier Payout, so none of them can sit under a budget line. On a company's first qualifying transaction the reward is the greater of $50,000 plus 5% and 15% of Actual Supplier Payout, with no cap; each further qualifying transaction with that company first agreed within 12 months of the first Closing, the Repeat Window, pays 15% of its Actual Supplier Payout, and the USD 50,000 floor applies once per referred company, never again on a repeat, renewal or amendment. A transaction qualifies only when its Actual Supplier Payout is at least USD 100,000, the Minimum Transaction, unless SourceX agrees otherwise in writing. When the company is paid in installments, the reward accrues proportionately as each installment is paid, the USD 50,000 element with the first installment that meets every condition.

Timing comes from three rules a budget has to respect:

- **The deadline.** Payment is due no later than 60 calendar days past the later of completed handoff and the Acquisition Partner's final written acceptance of the complete, validated dataset, provided the other conditions are met; anything still outstanding then is paid promptly once satisfied.
- **The supplier's own timetable is irrelevant.** The terms say a supplier's payment timetable, including any Net 60 clause, never determines when referral rewards are paid.
- **Estimates are not amounts.** The terms call portal and calculator estimates projections, not promises, and the rewards page says SourceX does not provide income projections.

## The zero-base cash scenario model

Illustrative. A 40-person consulting firm plans one year of referral work. The hours, internal costs and outcomes are invented; the reward arithmetic follows the published formula.

**Step 1: price the effort.** Two partners spend 60 hours a quarter between them on screening companies at metadata level and making introductions, at an internal cost of $150 an hour. Firm finance spends 4 hours a quarter, at $100 an hour, on payment setup and a monthly reconciliation. If those partner hours would otherwise be billed, use the billing rate instead; the budget should show what the effort displaces.

**Step 2: set referral revenue to zero in every period.** Not a small number, not a weighted guess: zero.

**Step 3: lay the quarters out and read the zero year first.**

| Line (Illustrative) | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partner time, 60 hours at $150 | -$9,000 | -$9,000 | -$9,000 | -$9,000 | -$36,000 |
| Finance time, 4 hours at $100 | -$400 | -$400 | -$400 | -$400 | -$1,600 |
| Referral cash in, zero year | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net, zero year | -$9,400 | -$9,400 | -$9,400 | -$9,400 | -$37,600 |
| Referral cash in, single-company year | $0 | $0 | $70,000 | $0 | $70,000 |
| Net, single-company year | -$9,400 | -$9,400 | +$60,600 | -$9,400 | +$32,400 |

**Step 4: run the affordability test.** The question is not whether the program will pay; it is whether the firm can carry -$37,600 if it does not. Compare that figure with what the firm already spends on business development with no promised return, such as events or sponsorships. If the zero year does not fit, cut the hours, not the assumptions: at 30 partner hours a quarter the cost is $4,900 a quarter and $19,600 for the year.

**Step 5: write down what would change the plan.** The model changes only on the evidence events listed further down, never on a promising meeting.

## Three test years and the term that governs each

Every year below carries the same $37,600 of cost. Only the outcome and its timing differ.

| Year tested (Illustrative) | What happens | Cash in this year | Net this year | Governing term |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zero year | No introduced company reaches Closing | $0 | -$37,600 | Unclosed data and unpaid amounts are not Actual Supplier Payout; a lead, meeting or signed agreement alone earns nothing payable |
| Slipped year | A company is paid $160,000 after acceptance and handoff complete in mid-December; the $58,000 reward falls due after year-end | $0 | -$37,600 | The 60-day deadline runs from the later of acceptance and handoff, not from the supplier's payment terms |
| Single-company year | A company is paid $400,000 in Q2; the $70,000 reward, USD 50,000 plus 5%, is paid in Q3 | $70,000 | +$32,400 | The USD 50,000 floor is paid once per company; a repeat first agreed within 12 months of the first Closing pays 15% with no floor |

**The slipped year is the one budgets miss.** The program worked, a company was paid and a reward of $58,000 is coming, yet this fiscal year still closes at -$37,600. A conservative plan dates cash at the deadline rather than at the first possible day, so a December handoff belongs in next year's first quarter. Partners who report on a fiscal year should expect the result and the cash to land in different years.

**The single-company year is the one that misleads.** The $70,000 is the whole year's result, earned from one company, and most of it is the USD 50,000 floor, which that company earns only once: a repeat first agreed within 12 months of the first Closing pays 15% of its own Actual Supplier Payout, and later licenses fall outside the Repeat Window. Rolling it forward as a run rate assumes a new company of the same size reaches Closing every year, which nothing in the program supports. The [renewal scenarios](/guides/data-referral-renewal-cap) work through how repeats are paid.

## Re-forecast triggers: the only events that add a dollar

The budget is set once and stays at zero. The forecast beside it moves, and only on these events.

| Event | Budget line | Forecast line | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| Introduction submitted | $0 | $0 | A lead earns nothing on its own |
| Verified application credited to you | $0 | $0 | Credit settles attribution, not money |
| Company signs its supplier agreement | $0 | $0 | A signed agreement alone does not earn a payable reward |
| Portal shows Estimated | $0 | $0 | A projection, not a promise |
| SourceX has paid the company | $0 | The computed reward, dated at the deadline | The amount now rests on an actual payout |
| Finance approval, or Processing | $0 | Expected in the month | Approved means finance has approved the reward |
| Paid | Variance against $0 | Actual | Cash received |

Accounting standards take a similar line on uncertain income. IFRS 15, the international revenue standard, lets a business include variable consideration in revenue only to the extent that it is highly probable that a significant reversal will not occur, and names factors that make a reversal more likely: amounts highly susceptible to factors outside the entity's influence, limited experience with similar contracts and a long wait before the uncertainty resolves. Until SourceX has paid the company, a referral reward has all three. A budget is not a set of financial statements and your accountant decides how any reward is booked, but a budget more cautious than the revenue standard is hard to fault. SourceX's own [board scenario model](https://sourcex.si/insights/data-licensing-board-scenario-model) gives companies the same discipline, advising them to leave the deal amount blank until a written offer exists.

## Reconcile what became payable, and label what has not been earned

Each month, put three columns side by side for every company past the Estimated status: budget (always $0), forecast (from the triggers above) and actual cash. Then:

1. Recompute each reward transaction by transaction: the greater of $50,000 plus 5% and 15% of Actual Supplier Payout, with no cap, on the company's first qualifying transaction, and 15% on each repeat first agreed within 12 months of the first Closing.
2. Check that your own payment and tax details are complete, so the one condition you control is never the reason a reward waits.
3. Apply any reduction: when a cancellation, refund or chargeback lawfully reduces a supplier payout after the fact, the reward on that transaction falls proportionately, so rerun it on the reduced payout.
4. Set money aside for tax only when cash arrives; [estimated taxes on referral income](/questions/estimated-taxes-on-referral-income) covers the mechanics.
5. In the notes, list Estimated amounts by company with the words "not earned". They never enter revenue, and the [difference between estimated and payable](/questions/estimated-vs-payable-referral-commission) explains why.

If more than one person in the firm works on introductions, how any reward is shared among them belongs in a written internal agreement made before the work starts, not in this model. The [earnings calculator](/tools/referral-earnings-calculator) returns the formula amount for a single payout when a trigger fires.

## Which introductions justify the hours in the first place

Spend the budgeted hours only on companies that can pass the published fit facts: at least 50 full-time employees at the company's peak (contractors do not count), an operating history that is documented, the right to license the records and an authorized contact. Companies in the U.S., Canada and the EU qualify, as do companies in the UK, Australia, New Zealand, India, Singapore, South Africa, Latin America, the UAE and Saudi Arabia when at least 70% of the data is in English. Since it is the CEO who authorizes any licensing discussion and signs on the company's behalf, the hours go into reaching CEOs who want the conversation.

Screening stays at metadata level, covering record types, rough volume, years covered and the system and its owner; nobody asks a client for files, samples or logins. Whether the records match a current program, and what any license would pay, stays unknown until SourceX reviews the company, which is exactly why the revenue line starts at zero. The partner who submits signs the SourceX Channel Partner Agreement beforehand, and a partner who holds the version signed under its former name, the Channel Partner Non-Circumvention and Non-Disclosure Agreement, keeps that agreement in force as signed. More partner economics sits in [the guides hub](/guides).

## Next step

> **Refer a company. No cap on rewards.** Default reward on a company's first qualifying transaction: the greater of $50,000 plus 5% and 15% of Actual Supplier Payout, with no cap; further qualifying transactions first agreed within 12 months of the first Closing pay 15%. Eligibility and payment conditions apply, including the USD 100,000 Minimum Transaction, and a signed Schedule A or addendum can differ. A lead, meeting or signature alone does not trigger payment.

If your firm can carry the zero year and still has companies worth the hours, [register for a partner link](/register), check each candidate against [who qualifies](/who-qualifies) and file a dated copy of the [program terms](/terms) with the budget, so every trigger in the forecast points to a clause.

## Sources

- https://refer.sourcex.si/terms
- https://refer.sourcex.si/rewards
- https://refer.sourcex.si/who-qualifies
- https://www.ifrs.org/content/dam/ifrs/publications/pdf-standards/english/2021/issued/part-a/ifrs-15-revenue-from-contracts-with-customers.pdf
- https://sourcex.si/insights/data-licensing-board-scenario-model